AUD/USD hovers above 0.7300 amid anxiety over Ukraine-Russia peace talks

  • AUD/USD seesaws inside the 30-pip range after rising the most in two weeks.
  • Hopes of Ukraine diplomacy triggered initial upside but optimism fades on headlines from Russia, US.
  • RBA’s Lowe sounded less dovish, Aussie PM Morrison declared a national emergency on ease coast floods.
  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations, US CPI and Ukraine-Russia talks in Turkey are the key catalysts to watch for fresh impulse.

AUD/USD struggles to extend the biggest daily jump in a fortnight amid anxious mood ahead of Ukraine-Russia negotiations, making rounds to 0.7315-20 during early Thursday morning in Asia.

While posting the biggest daily rise in two weeks, the risk-barometer pair also snapped the previous two-day downtrend on Wednesday as market sentiment improved on concerns that Ukraine’s diplomacy may help overcome the geopolitical tussle with Russia. However, the latest headlines suggesting the noise to remain on the table, at least from Moscow’s side, have weighed on the AUD/USD prices of late, which in turn kept the quote inside a 0.7310-40 area recently.

Comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Velenskyy, suggesting that We are prepared for certain compromises, Russia also needs to compromise seemed to have boosted the market’s mood. Previously, Ukraine’s dumping of a plan to join NATO and the start of the human corridor to first evacuate Ukrainian civilians helped to improve the mood.

On the contrary, Russian State Media mentioned that the Russian delegation at peace talks with Ukraine will not concede anything. Furthermore, the White House (WH) confronted the claims that the US used chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine.

Elsewhere, Australian media ABC News said, “Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared a national emergency in response to catastrophic floods in northern New South Wales.” Before that, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe spoke at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit. The policymaker initially said, “Plusible the cash rate will be increased later this year,” before stating, “Closer to point where inflation sustainably in the target range, but not there yet.”

Talking about data, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in better than forecast in February while Australia’s march month Westpac Consumer Confidence dropped to -4.2% versus -1.1% expected and -1.3% prior. On the other hand, the US JOLTS Job Openings eased to 11.3 million in January from 11.4 million prior.

Amid these plays, Wall Street benchmarks rallied and so did the US 10-year Treasury yields. The risk-on mood also weighed on the safe-haven demand of gold that declined almost $90.00.

Moving on, the market’s attention will be on the Ukraine-Russia talks in Turkey. However, Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for March, expected to remain unchanged at 4.6%, and the US CPI for February, likely rising to 7.9% from 7.5% prior, will decorate the calendar.

Read: US February CPI Preview: Will hot inflation force Fed’s hand?

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond the 200-DMA level surrounding 0.7315 defies the early-week pullback, suggesting further upside towards the 0.7400 threshold before challenging the latest top near 0.7440.

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